Is there more to the Blowout Jobs Report?

Friday’s job numbers released by the BLS more than doubled consensus expectations.

Author

Ryan Burkett
October 10, 2023

Good morning!

On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released their jobs report, which shattered all expectations, which expected us to land somewhere between 144,000 and 204,000 hires for the month of September. Instead, we saw an Earth shattering 336,000 added jobs for the month. At the same time, unemployment stayed at 3.8%.

Where are these jobs coming from?

To see where these jobs came from, we can split workers in various ways. First, let’s look at private vs public (government) jobs. The private sector saw a decline of just under 400k jobs in the month, while the public saw a gain of 984k (mostly teachers). The entirety of the gain on this report is due to public sector jobs. This is yet another sign of weakness in the economy.

Private Payrolls Drop While Public Increase

Full Vs Part Time

Part time hires increased to the tune of 151k, while full time workers FELL by 22k. that marks 3 straight months of full time worker declines, and the highest number of part time workers since January. We are also at a 20+ year high of multiple job holders, where BOTH JOBS are full time. Something tells me that they don’t do this out of their love of employment.

Removing Seasonal Jobs

Finally, the most concerning part of the report. When we remove seasonal hires from the jobs report, the full-time worker report dropped by just shy of 900,000 jobs. We have not seen this drastic of a drop since April of 2020, with the start of the Covid Pandemic.

Summing It Up in 1 Picture

The topline number released points to a booming economy. However, once we dig deeper into the report, we find that there is far more than meets the eye. The BLS counts every job, even those who have multiple. Even using their numbers, when we dig deeper into private sector jobs, or even full vs part time, a completely different picture emerges.

Have a great week everyone!

Ryan